Republicans Are Suddenly Doing A Little Bit Better Everywhere. Why?
Also: Would Mike Pence be safer at a MAGA rally or a Democratic rally?
Heads up: No Triad tomorrow. I’ll be back on Monday. And maybe on Saturday. We’ll see.
Also: No Thursday Night Bulwark tonight because the gang is in DC doing a live house show. I’m sad I’m going to miss it. Maybe we can all get together at the next one.
But wait! Tonight’s live show in DC sold out in about a day, but I just got an email from someone whose wife can’t come and so he now has an extra ticket. I want to give it to one of you!
First person to reply to this email and tell me you want the ticket can have it. Show starts at 7:30 p.m. ET in Penn Quarter. Charlie is interviewing Michael Fanone, then Tim, Sarah and Amanda will take the stage to preview the midterms. I wish I had some clever idea for a contest or something, but I think that would demean us both.
So tell me if you can use the ticket tonight.
I really appreciate the seriousness you all brought to the discussion this week.
Today I want to talk about why I think the environment is eroding for Democrats.
On Tuesday I said that the distribution of outcomes for the Senate falls across a pretty wide band, with the span running from 54 Rs to 54 Ds representing something like 80 percent of the outcomes. I should have looked at 538 first, because they’ve already done the math. Of course:
The 80 percent interval is actually at 53 R to 53 D. But you’ll see that the 54 spots are relatively possible, too.
Well, we’re 19 days out and my underlying sense is that things are trending toward Republicans. Some data points, all from the last two weeks:
Biden’s net approval rating has gone from -9 to -11.
The Generic Congressional Ballot went from a 1 point lead for Republicans to a 3 point lead.
Georgia went from +5 Warnock to +2 Warnock.
Ohio went from +1 Vance to +2 Vance.
Arizona went from +4 Kelly to +2 Kelly.
We’re seeing the same kind of movement in gubernatorial races: In Arizona, we’ve gone from Lake +1 to Lake +2.
We’re even seeing movement in races where the Republicans are already toast: Doug Mastriano is going to lose in Pennsylvania, but his support ticked up by a point. Tudor Dixon is likely to lose in Michigan, but she’s +5 points over the last two weeks.
Those are all high-profile races, but we’re seeing the same type of movement nearly everywhere.1 Over the last two weeks the Republican Senate candidate in North Carolina bumped up 2 points. The New York governor’s race—I assume you have not been watching this closely—has gone from D +11 to D +6.
Like I said: This movement is almost everywhere, in every kind of race. State races, federal races, races with tons of money in them, low-profile races, competitive races, and races where the outcome is already determined.
We’re talking about scores of polls in wildly different states. In some races, the Republican was leading. In other races the Democrat was leading. But in nearly every case, the directionality is the same: Small improvement for the Republican candidate.
Now ask yourself: What has happened over the last two weeks?