With Enough Help, Ukraine Can Win
Plus, Orbán’s CPAC Fibs and Flubs.
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STEPHEN E. BIEGUN, ERIC EDELMAN, DANIEL FATA, AND DAVID J. KRAMER: With Enough Help, Ukraine Can Win.
Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military’s ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin’s military. Time is of the essence.
There is a difference between thwarting Russia’s maximal objectives and Ukrainian victory. Playing for a tie runs the risk that Russia can accomplish in a war of attrition what it failed to achieve in its initial blitzkrieg: the destruction of a functioning, sovereign, independent Ukraine. Moreover, allowing this fight to devolve into an “endless war” risks endangering the lives of many more Ukrainians and jeopardizing continued popular support in the West for assisting Ukraine.
More than 75,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, according to Rep. Elissa Slotkin, based on a briefing from the U.S. intelligence community. “Over 80 percent of their land forces are bogged down, and they’re tired,” she added. If true, that would be roughly half of all Russian combat forces sent to invade Ukraine.
“I think they’re about to run out of steam,” said British spy chief Richard Moore during the recent Aspen Security Conference, echoing the view of U.S. intelligence that such staggering losses raise questions about Russia’s ability to sustain its campaign. “I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower [and] material over the next few weeks. They will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.”
Republicans may love Trump because “he fights,” but CPAC showed that a lust for violence has extended to the whole party. Plus, Doug Ducey gets no props, and are Democrats afraid to be happy with their policy wins? Will Saletan and Amanda Carpenter are back for Summer Mondays.
Wisconsinites are embarrassed to have Ron Johnson as their senator, but does that mean progressive Mandela Barnes has a good shot at the seat? Buckle up, the matchup promises to be one of the dirtiest campaigns of the midterms. Plus, another chapter in the Trump-Pence proxy war for a governor’s mansion. Charlie Sykes joins Sarah for this week’s episode.
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BALÁZS GULYÁS: Orbán’s CPAC Fibs and Flubs.
Most of the biggest names appearing in Dallas at the latest CPAC, including former President Donald Trump, were scheduled for the evenings and the weekend. So it may have been surprising for some attendees when, early last Thursday afternoon, a plump, jovial, gray-haired man climbed on the stage at the Hilton Anatole Hotel, and it turned out that he was the longtime leader of an Eastern European country.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán must have sensed that he had reached a major milestone in his career. After years of lobbying and lots of taxpayer money (one of CPAC’s major “supporting sponsors” is Orbán’s publicly funded think tank, the Center for Fundamental Rights), and even hosting a CPAC gathering in Budapest four months ago, Orbán finally had 30 minutes to speak at the conservative conference on American soil.
Happy Monday! I had a great Saturday, which was ruined on Sunday when one of my toddlers came down with Pink Eye. So, I spent Sunday attending to them and watching the end of the Vote-A-Rama in the Senate. But I built a bunk bed by myself, and that’s not nothing.
Fireworks in Michigan…
Is Marco Rubio in trouble? Recent polling suggests yes.
The generals. There’s a reason Trump wanted them. Fealty.
Flushing… Not how you’d think. (Seems like document destruction to me!)
Make some time… As JVL suggests, for this.
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