Are We Really Going to Run 2020 Again?

Trump and Biden, forever.

Trump addresses a crowd during a campaign rally on October 24, 2020 in Lumberton, North Carolina. (Photo by Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images)

For a loooooong time I’ve maintained that, barring a health event, Joe Biden was the most likely Democratic nominee for 2024. I typically put his chances of being the nominee at something like 95 percent—with the 5 percent being him deciding that he didn’t want to run.

If Biden runs, he’s the nominee. Full stop.

But in a weird way, the Democrats’ midterm success has created an off-ramp for Biden and maybe makes it more likely that he decides not to run.