How Do You Negotiate with a War Criminal?
There is only one endgame.
On tonightās livestream Iāll be joined by neo-lib icon Noah Smith as well as my buddies Will Saletan and Ted Johnson. Weāre going to talk about the economics of Ukraine, Russia, and sanctions.
Tonightās show is only for Bulwark+ members.
I hope youāll come hang out with me at 8:00 p.m. ET tonight. Thereās still time to join and if you canāt make the live show, weāll post the recording.
1. Reality
We sometimes talk about the invasion in Ukraine with a high degree of abstraction so I want to remind you that this is not an academic exercise. Itās not a war game.
Itās an authoritarian country invading a neighbor without provocation and then committing war crimes. Please read this dispatch from Mariupol and do not forget it:
The bodies of the children all lie here, dumped into this narrow trench hastily dug into the frozen earth of Mariupol to the constant drumbeat of shelling.
Thereās 18-month-old Kirill, whose shrapnel wound to the head proved too much for his little toddlerās body. Thereās 16-year-old Iliya, whose legs were blown up in an explosion during a soccer game at a school field. Thereās the girl no older than 6 who wore the pajamas with cartoon unicorns, among the first of Mariupolās children to die from a Russian shell.
They are stacked together with dozens of others in this mass grave on the outskirts of the city.
Keep it in mind when we discuss the various possibilities for a negotiated settlement to the war, as we did yesterday.
And then ask yourself: How is a settlement with this Russian regime possible?
2. A History of Lies
To recap:
In 1995 Russia signed an international agreement promising to defend Ukraine against any military aggression.
In February of 2022 Vladimir Putin said Russia was conducting āpurely defensiveā āplannedā ādrillsā on the border with Ukraine and that these were ānot a threat to any other country.ā
After meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Putin said he would pull back some Russian troops from the Ukrainian border.
A few days later Putin invaded and stated that his goal was to ādenazify and demilitarize Ukraine.ā
After several days of fighting, Russia announced a temporary ceasefire in Mariupol and Volnovakha so that civilians could evacuate. Russian forces then fired on the fleeing civilians.
Now Russia says itās willing to make peace. Maybe. Terms and conditions pending. On the same day as this happened:
How does that work?
Ukraine may have one answer to this question; the West may have another.
If youāre Ukraine, you might be willing to tolerate just about anything to stop the killing. Maybe you could publicly forego attempting to join the NATO alliance again while hoping to enter some other sort of allianceāan off-brand NATO. And maybe you could do this with no illusions about your long-term security.
You could hope to rebuild and re-arm and be better prepared should the Russians come calling again.
We could argue over whether this would be the best strategic decision, but weāre not the ones watching our children being buried in mass graves.
But if youāre the West, then no matter what sort of negotiated agreement Ukraine were to strike with Russia, we would have to make our own judgment about sanctions and relations with Putinās regime.
And here I would submit to you that there is no circumstance short of regime change which should change our disposition.
The Russian regime is a danger. Putin has committed war crimes. He has proven that he cannot be trusted to abide by any of his stated policies or agreements. Whatever agreement Ukraine might make, this Russian government should not be admitted back into the international order. Period. Full stop.
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3. Extraordinary Leadership
I try to never waste your time and I will warn you up front that this is a 9-minute video. But it is an extraordinary display of leadership. This is Arnold Schwarzenegger speaking directly to the Russian people with a message that was designed in a lab to persuade.
This isnāt virtue signaling or sentiment. Itās meeting the Russian people where they are and talking honestly about his own history, the pain his father caused and then suffered from, the beauty and strength of the Russian people, and the truth that is being hidden from them.
Arnold Schwarzenegger has led a weird, wonderful, amazing life. And this is his finest moment.
I made myself read the AP report. I'm not saying I wish I hadn't, but I feel like I'm going to have to take the rest of the day off. I hate to be one of those people who says "I didn't really understand until I had kids," but the children in those pictures look like my children. They just as easily could be. It makes me feel a visceral, primal anger I haven't felt since maybe 9/11 -- and this might even be worse because on 9/11 I was just some college kid with no real responsibilities.
And while I understand and accept the intellectual case for non-intervention up to this point, my more emotional side wouldn't shed a single tear if Moscow were to become a glass parking lot. But that's why people with [hopefully] cooler heads than mine are in charge, I suppose.
Every so often I think about the alternate reality where Arnold becomes the standard-bearer of the Republican Party instead of Trump.